#23 From Case Study to Agent_zero and Back. A Generative Social Science Model for Debtors' Revolts
Author: Ilaria Bertazzi
The presented work is an ABM that reproduces, by progressive stylization of empirical facts in a comparative approach over different instances, a particular type of social movement, which appeared several times in different nations in recent years: household debtors revolts.
They involve aspects that are found in social movements generally, such as discontent towards authority, ethical considerations and economical motives. As social movements, they unveil the mechanism of normative change, in this case related to debt causes, rules and legislation. The issue is how to model such form of collective behavior that challenge the idea of stability of norms, not only their emergence. In this case, we may deal with opposed groups of interest, but also we have to find explanation and modeling representation for a brand new norm to emerge.
The model proposed stands, notably, on the Generative Perspective, aiming to explain macroscopic social regularities (norms, spatial patterns, contagion,..) in the form of the question: “How could the autonomous local interactions of heterogeneous boundedly rational agents generate the given regularity?” [Epstein,2006,p.1587]. It is Generative in the sense that it contains the smallest number of rules that can make emerge the observed facts. The agents design is the one proposed by Epstein in Agent_Zero(2014), in which emotional, cognitive and social factors shape individual, therefor collective, behavior.
In accordance to Generative minimalism, the behavior of agents is algorithmically simple. The action, or observable behavior, is binary (to join the movement or not), whereas the motives are structured as a disposition numerical variable, computed in modules of three evolving components: emotional/affective, cognitive/deliberative, and network/contagion.
Conclusions are a critical analysis of the elements inside the model that resulted crucial for the emergence of the phenomenon, in particular in the light of the qualitative empirical study that inspired the model.
#24 Measures of Financial Network Complexity: A Topological Approach
Authors: Mark Flood, Jonathan Simon and Mathew Timm
We present a general definition of complexity appropriate for financial counterparty networks, and derive several topologically based implementations. These range from simple and obvious metrics to others that are more mathematically subtle. It is important to tailor a complexity measure to the specific context in which it is used. This paper introduces measures of the complexity of search and netting in dealer markets. We define measures of line graph homology and collateral line graph homology that are sensitive to network interactions, such as collateral commingling and interdependent chains of obligations, that can be diffcult or intractable to unwind.
#25 Dynamic Resilience in Complex Networks
Author: Baruch Barzel
Resilience is a system's ability to cope with change, or to bounce back after stress.The loss of resilience in a natural system occurs when the stress exceeds a certain threshold, beyond which the system loses its ability to bounce back and retain proper functionality. For instance, when the loss of trees in a forest (deforestation) crosses a tipping point and the forest turns barren, or when the load on the electrical power grid becomes too high and a massive power failure emerges. The challenge is that most complex systems are multidimensional, disordered and described by nonlinear dynamics - characteristics that firmly avoid analytical treatment. We address this challenge by showing how to map a complex system into an effective one dimensional equation, exposing the universal patterns of resilience exhibited by diverse systems, from ecological to technological networks.Along the way we will understand why systems lose resilience all of a sudden, learn how to predict such resilience loss and show how to fortify a system to become more resilient.
CITE: Nature 530, 307–312 (2016)
#29 SES Watershed Management: Integrating transdisciplinary science through scenario-based planning
Authors: Meagan Krupa and Jamie Trammell
While classic watershed management, collaborative watershed management, and integrated watershed management have had their successes; they’ve also failed to systematically address the complexities of social-ecological dynamics. SES research has yet to demonstrate how SES characterization can produce demand-driven science with the goal of implementing policy change. Scenario-based planning is one way to integrate SES concepts within watershed management plans. Since scenario planning processes are often oriented toward influencing decisions (Wollenberg et al. 2000), they could provide the missing link between management recommendations and policy outcomes. Participatory scenario planning allows researchers to customize locally relevant scientific tools and allows communities to monitor for unwanted regime shifts. We suggest that when these frameworks are combined to address social challenges and adaptive capacity, the result is a transdisciplinary and community-driven management approach that addresses the interactions and uncertainties of coupled social-ecological systems through dynamic monitoring and planning processes. This transdisciplinary and localized approach will improve the identification of, and planning for, changes associated with the uncertainties produced by climate change, development, or shifting economies. An SES analysis combined with the fundamental political concepts of boundary drawing, decision making, and accountability elicited through scenario planning may bridge the social gaps between integrated management prescriptions and practices.
#32 on Complex systems in nature, the quantum vacuum, tensegrity, and teleology
Author: J.F. Nystrom
Humans (and you k-now who you are) have attempted to analyze and comprehend complex systems in nature from our earliest recorded times. Modern physical theory then suggests we take seriously the implications of the quantum vacuum when building complex systems simulations that would purport to both: exhibit behaviors similar to the system under study, and provide insight into the true nature of the system. (E.g., Wheeler's quantum foam includes `things' popping into and out of existence, and `effects' both forward and backward in time - required for any physical interactions that occur in Universe.)
I ask us to consider the implications of nature having both an underlying geometry (i.e., a ``framework of possibility''), and a teleologically driven morphogenesis-type engine running behind all complex systems. This necessarily non-materialistic view, is compared to more ancient views, e.g., Cudworth's Platonic `anima mundi', or Hebrew `Chiram': that breath/fire of life/nature guiding all physical events that make up any complex system (which in fact is something we possibly bear witness to when we consider the mechanisms of the quantum vacuum).
We embark then on a gedanken experiment wherein I combine the assumptions of computational cosmography, an underlying quantum vacuum (and its aptly named `reality flux'' mechanism), Snelsen's (and Fuller's) tensegrity, Sheldrake's Morphic Resonance, and a smattering of Bostrom's observation selection effects. Thus the door opens to an honest consideration of whether casual or teleological influences drive complex systems in nature; since by this time in the talk we have reviewed a key observation selection effect noted by Jan Faye: ``Our ordinary notion of causation does not track any nomological feature of the world. What counts as the cause and the effect depends on the observer's projection of his or her temporal sense onto the world.'' Implications/conjectures for programming and design strategies may also be included.
Author: Ilaria Bertazzi
The presented work is an ABM that reproduces, by progressive stylization of empirical facts in a comparative approach over different instances, a particular type of social movement, which appeared several times in different nations in recent years: household debtors revolts.
They involve aspects that are found in social movements generally, such as discontent towards authority, ethical considerations and economical motives. As social movements, they unveil the mechanism of normative change, in this case related to debt causes, rules and legislation. The issue is how to model such form of collective behavior that challenge the idea of stability of norms, not only their emergence. In this case, we may deal with opposed groups of interest, but also we have to find explanation and modeling representation for a brand new norm to emerge.
The model proposed stands, notably, on the Generative Perspective, aiming to explain macroscopic social regularities (norms, spatial patterns, contagion,..) in the form of the question: “How could the autonomous local interactions of heterogeneous boundedly rational agents generate the given regularity?” [Epstein,2006,p.1587]. It is Generative in the sense that it contains the smallest number of rules that can make emerge the observed facts. The agents design is the one proposed by Epstein in Agent_Zero(2014), in which emotional, cognitive and social factors shape individual, therefor collective, behavior.
In accordance to Generative minimalism, the behavior of agents is algorithmically simple. The action, or observable behavior, is binary (to join the movement or not), whereas the motives are structured as a disposition numerical variable, computed in modules of three evolving components: emotional/affective, cognitive/deliberative, and network/contagion.
Conclusions are a critical analysis of the elements inside the model that resulted crucial for the emergence of the phenomenon, in particular in the light of the qualitative empirical study that inspired the model.
#24 Measures of Financial Network Complexity: A Topological Approach
Authors: Mark Flood, Jonathan Simon and Mathew Timm
We present a general definition of complexity appropriate for financial counterparty networks, and derive several topologically based implementations. These range from simple and obvious metrics to others that are more mathematically subtle. It is important to tailor a complexity measure to the specific context in which it is used. This paper introduces measures of the complexity of search and netting in dealer markets. We define measures of line graph homology and collateral line graph homology that are sensitive to network interactions, such as collateral commingling and interdependent chains of obligations, that can be diffcult or intractable to unwind.
#25 Dynamic Resilience in Complex Networks
Author: Baruch Barzel
Resilience is a system's ability to cope with change, or to bounce back after stress.The loss of resilience in a natural system occurs when the stress exceeds a certain threshold, beyond which the system loses its ability to bounce back and retain proper functionality. For instance, when the loss of trees in a forest (deforestation) crosses a tipping point and the forest turns barren, or when the load on the electrical power grid becomes too high and a massive power failure emerges. The challenge is that most complex systems are multidimensional, disordered and described by nonlinear dynamics - characteristics that firmly avoid analytical treatment. We address this challenge by showing how to map a complex system into an effective one dimensional equation, exposing the universal patterns of resilience exhibited by diverse systems, from ecological to technological networks.Along the way we will understand why systems lose resilience all of a sudden, learn how to predict such resilience loss and show how to fortify a system to become more resilient.
CITE: Nature 530, 307–312 (2016)
#29 SES Watershed Management: Integrating transdisciplinary science through scenario-based planning
Authors: Meagan Krupa and Jamie Trammell
While classic watershed management, collaborative watershed management, and integrated watershed management have had their successes; they’ve also failed to systematically address the complexities of social-ecological dynamics. SES research has yet to demonstrate how SES characterization can produce demand-driven science with the goal of implementing policy change. Scenario-based planning is one way to integrate SES concepts within watershed management plans. Since scenario planning processes are often oriented toward influencing decisions (Wollenberg et al. 2000), they could provide the missing link between management recommendations and policy outcomes. Participatory scenario planning allows researchers to customize locally relevant scientific tools and allows communities to monitor for unwanted regime shifts. We suggest that when these frameworks are combined to address social challenges and adaptive capacity, the result is a transdisciplinary and community-driven management approach that addresses the interactions and uncertainties of coupled social-ecological systems through dynamic monitoring and planning processes. This transdisciplinary and localized approach will improve the identification of, and planning for, changes associated with the uncertainties produced by climate change, development, or shifting economies. An SES analysis combined with the fundamental political concepts of boundary drawing, decision making, and accountability elicited through scenario planning may bridge the social gaps between integrated management prescriptions and practices.
#32 on Complex systems in nature, the quantum vacuum, tensegrity, and teleology
Author: J.F. Nystrom
Humans (and you k-now who you are) have attempted to analyze and comprehend complex systems in nature from our earliest recorded times. Modern physical theory then suggests we take seriously the implications of the quantum vacuum when building complex systems simulations that would purport to both: exhibit behaviors similar to the system under study, and provide insight into the true nature of the system. (E.g., Wheeler's quantum foam includes `things' popping into and out of existence, and `effects' both forward and backward in time - required for any physical interactions that occur in Universe.)
I ask us to consider the implications of nature having both an underlying geometry (i.e., a ``framework of possibility''), and a teleologically driven morphogenesis-type engine running behind all complex systems. This necessarily non-materialistic view, is compared to more ancient views, e.g., Cudworth's Platonic `anima mundi', or Hebrew `Chiram': that breath/fire of life/nature guiding all physical events that make up any complex system (which in fact is something we possibly bear witness to when we consider the mechanisms of the quantum vacuum).
We embark then on a gedanken experiment wherein I combine the assumptions of computational cosmography, an underlying quantum vacuum (and its aptly named `reality flux'' mechanism), Snelsen's (and Fuller's) tensegrity, Sheldrake's Morphic Resonance, and a smattering of Bostrom's observation selection effects. Thus the door opens to an honest consideration of whether casual or teleological influences drive complex systems in nature; since by this time in the talk we have reviewed a key observation selection effect noted by Jan Faye: ``Our ordinary notion of causation does not track any nomological feature of the world. What counts as the cause and the effect depends on the observer's projection of his or her temporal sense onto the world.'' Implications/conjectures for programming and design strategies may also be included.
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